Well, "it depends".
With the code you have there, running on the Sun JVM, and the way that they've implemented ArrayList, the answer is "yes", they're equal.
This is because by default, an ArrayList starts off with an array of 10 elements. Odds are the most implementations do the same thing.
But if you had an ArrayList with 10 elements, and another with 11, whether the elements are null or not, the 11 element one would consume more RAM because the internal array used to track the elements would have expanded.
Finally, if you were using different List implementation, such as a LinkedList, then the two lists would consume different amounts of memory, as the LinkedList doesn't pre-allocate anything and uses a node wrapper for its elements.