once a while I saw a similar python program from
# Prac 2 for Monte Carlo methods in a nutshell
# Richard Chopping, ANU RSES and Geoscience Australia, October 2012
# Useage
# python prac_q2.py [number of bootstrap runs]
# e.g. python prac_q2.py 10000
# would execute this and perform 10 000 bootstrap runs.
# Default is 100 runs.
# sys cause I need to access the arguments the script was called with
import sys
# math cause it's handy for scalar maths
import math
# time cause I want to benchmark how long things take
import time
# numpy cause it gives us awesome array / matrix manipulation stuff
import numpy
# scipy just in case
import scipy
# scipy.stats to make life simpler statistcally speaking
import scipy.stats as stats
def main():
print "Prac 2 solution: no graphs"
true_model = numpy.array([17.0, 10.0, 1.96])
# Here's a nifty way to write out numpy arrays.
# Unlike the data table in the prac handouts, I've got time first
# and height second.
# You can mix up the order but you need to change a lot of calculations
# to deal with this change.
data = numpy.array([[1.0, 26.94],
[2.0, 33.45],
[3.0, 40.72],
[4.0, 42.32],
[5.0, 44.30],
[6.0, 47.19],
[7.0, 43.33],
[8.0, 40.13]])
# Perform the least squares regression to find the best fit solution
best_fit = regression(data)
# Nifty way to get out elements from an array
m1,m2,m3 = best_fit
print "Best fit solution:"
print "m1 is", m1, "and m2 is", m2, "and m3 is", m3
# Calculate residuals from the best fit solution
best_fit_resid = residuals(data, best_fit)
print "The residuals from the best fit solution are:"
print best_fit_resid
print ""
# Bootstrap part
# --------------
# Number of bootstraps to run. 100 is a minimum and our default number.
num_booties = 100
# If we have an argument to the python script, use this as the
# number of bootstrap runs
if len(sys.argv) > 1:
num_booties = int(sys.argv[1])
# preallocate an array to store the results.
ensemble = numpy.zeros((num_booties, 3))
print "Starting up the bootstrap routine"
# How to do timing within a Python script - here I start a stopwatch running
start_time = time.clock()
for index in range(num_booties):
# Print every 10 % so we know where we're up to in long runs
if print_progress(index, num_booties):
percent = (float(index) / float(num_booties)) * 100.0
print "Have completed", percent, "percent"
# For each iteration of the bootstrap algorithm,
# first calculate mixed up residuals...
resamp_resid = resamp_with_replace(best_fit_resid)
# ... then generate new data...
new_data = calc_new_data(data, best_fit, resamp_resid)
# ... then perform another regression to generate a new set of m1, m2, m3
bootstrap_model = regression(new_data)
ensemble[index] = (bootstrap_model[0], bootstrap_model[1], bootstrap_model[2])
# Done with the loop
# Calculate the time the run took - what's the current time, minus when we started.
loop_time = time.clock() - start_time
print ""
print "Ensemble calculated based on", num_booties, "bootstrap runs."
print "Bootstrap runs took", loop_time, "seconds."
print ""
# Stats on the ensemble time
# --------------------------
B = num_booties
# Mean is pretty simple, 1.0/B to force it to use floating points
# This gives us an array of the means of the 3 model parameters
mean = 1.0/B * numpy.sum(ensemble, axis=0)
print "Mean is ([m1 m2 m3]):", mean
# Variance
var2 = 1.0/B * numpy.sum(((ensemble - mean)**2), axis=0)
print "Variance squared is ([m1 m2 m3]):", var2
# Bias
bias = mean - best_fit
print "Bias is ([m1 m2 m3]):", bias
bias_corr = best_fit - bias
print "Bias corrected solution is ([m1 m2 m3]):", bias_corr
print "The original solution was ([m1 m2 m3]):", best_fit
print "And the true solution is ([m1 m2 m3]):", true_model
print ""
# Confidence intervals
# ---------------------
# Sort column 1 to calculate confidence intervals
# Sorting in numpy sucks.
# Need to declare what the fields are (so it knows how to sort it)
# f8 => numpy's floating point number
# Then need to delcare what we sort it on
# Here we sort on the first column, then the second, then the third.
# f0,f1,f2 field 0, then field 1, then field 2.
# Then we make sure we sort it by column (axis = 0)
# Then we take a view of that data as a float64 so it works properly
sorted_m1 = numpy.sort(ensemble.view('f8,f8,f8'), order=['f0','f1','f2'], axis=0).view(numpy.float64)
# stats is my name for scipy.stats
# This has a wonderful function that calculates percentiles, including performing interpolation
# (important for low numbers of bootstrap runs)
m1_perc0p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m1,0.5)[0]
m1_perc2p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m1,2.5)[0]
m1_perc16 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m1,16)[0]
m1_perc84 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m1,84)[0]
m1_perc97p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m1,97.5)[0]
m1_perc99p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m1,99.5)[0]
print "m1 68% confidence interval is from", m1_perc16, "to", m1_perc84
print "m1 95% confidence interval is from", m1_perc2p5, "to", m1_perc97p5
print "m1 99% confidence interval is from", m1_perc0p5, "to", m1_perc99p5
print ""
# Now column 2, sort it...
sorted_m2 = numpy.sort(ensemble.view('f8,f8,f8'), order=['f1','f0','f2'], axis=0).view(numpy.float64)
# ... and do stats.
m2_perc0p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m2,0.5)[1]
m2_perc2p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m2,2.5)[1]
m2_perc16 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m2,16)[1]
m2_perc84 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m2,84)[1]
m2_perc97p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m2,97.5)[1]
m2_perc99p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m2,99.5)[1]
print "m2 68% confidence interval is from", m2_perc16, "to", m2_perc84
print "m2 95% confidence interval is from", m2_perc2p5, "to", m2_perc97p5
print "m2 99% confidence interval is from", m2_perc0p5, "to", m2_perc99p5
print ""
# and finally column 3, again, sort it..
sorted_m3 = numpy.sort(ensemble.view('f8,f8,f8'), order=['f2','f1','f0'], axis=0).view(numpy.float64)
# ... and do stats.
m3_perc0p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m3,0.5)[1]
m3_perc2p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m3,2.5)[1]
m3_perc16 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m3,16)[1]
m3_perc84 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m3,84)[1]
m3_perc97p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m3,97.5)[1]
m3_perc99p5 = stats.scoreatpercentile(sorted_m3,99.5)[1]
print "m3 68% confidence interval is from", m3_perc16, "to", m3_perc84
print "m3 95% confidence interval is from", m3_perc2p5, "to", m3_perc97p5
print "m3 99% confidence interval is from", m3_perc0p5, "to", m3_perc99p5
print ""
# End of the main function
#
#
# Helper functions go down here
#
#
# regression
# This takes a 2D numpy array and performs a least-squares regression
# using the formula on the practical sheet, page 3
# Stored in the top are the real values
# Returns an array of m1, m2 and m3.
def regression(data):
# While testing, just return the real values
# real_values = numpy.array([17.0, 10.0, 1.96])
# Creating the G matrix
# ---------------------
# Because I'm using numpy arrays here, we need
# to learn some notation.
# data[:,0] is the FIRST column
# Length of this = number of time samples in data
N = len(data[:,0])
# numpy.sum adds up all data in a row or column.
# Axis = 0 implies add up each column. [0] at end
# returns the sum of the first column
# This is the sum of Ti for i = 1..N
sum_Ti = numpy.sum(data, axis=0)[0]
# numpy.power takes each element of an array and raises them to a given power
# In this one call we also take the sum of the columns (as above) after they have
# been squared, and then just take the t column
sum_Ti2 = numpy.sum(numpy.power(data, 2), axis=0)[0]
# Now we need to get the cube of Ti, then sum that result
sum_Ti3 = numpy.sum(numpy.power(data, 3), axis=0)[0]
# Finally we need the quartic of Ti, then sum that result
sum_Ti4 = numpy.sum(numpy.power(data, 4), axis=0)[0]
# Now we can construct the G matrix
G = numpy.array([[N, sum_Ti, -0.5 * sum_Ti2],
[sum_Ti, sum_Ti2, -0.5 * sum_Ti3],
[-0.5 * sum_Ti2, -0.5 * sum_Ti3, 0.25 * sum_Ti4]])
# We also need to take the inverse of the G matrix
G_inv = numpy.linalg.inv(G)
# Creating the d matrix
# ---------------------
# Hello numpy.sum, my old friend...
sum_Yi = numpy.sum(data, axis=0)[1]
# numpy.prod multiplies the values in an array.
# We need to do the products along axis 1 (i.e. row by row)
# Then sum all the elements
sum_TiYi = numpy.sum(numpy.prod(data, axis=1))
# The final element we need is a bit tricky.
# We need the product as above
TiYi = numpy.prod(data, axis=1)
# Then we get tricky. * works how we need it here,
# remember that the Ti column is referenced by data[:,0] as above
Ti2Yi = TiYi * data[:,0]
# Then we sum
sum_Ti2Yi = numpy.sum(Ti2Yi)
#With all the elements, we make the d matrix
d = numpy.array([sum_Yi,
sum_TiYi,
-0.5 * sum_Ti2Yi])
# Do the linear algebra stuff
# To multiple numpy arrays in a matrix style,
# we need to use numpy.dot()
# Not the most useful notation, but there you go.
# To help out the Matlab users: http://www.scipy.org/NumPy_for_Matlab_Users
result = G_inv.dot(d)
#Return this result
return result
# residuals:
# Takes in a data array, and an array of best fit paramers
# calculates the difference between the observed and predicted data
# and returns an array
def residuals(data, best_fit):
# Extract ti from the data array
ti = data[:,0]
# We also need an array of the square of ti
ti2 = numpy.power(ti, 2)
# Extract yi
yi = data[:,1]
# Calculate residual (data minus predicted)
result = yi - best_fit[0] - (best_fit[1] * ti) + (0.5 * best_fit[2] * ti2)
return result
# resamp_with_replace:
# Perform a dataset resampling with replacement on parameter set.
# Uses numpy.random to generate the random numbers to pick the indices to look up.
# So for item 0, ... N, we look up a random index from the set and put that in
# our resampled data.
def resamp_with_replace(set):
# How many things do we need to do this for?
N = len(set)
# Preallocate our result array
result = numpy.zeros(N)
# Generate N random integers between 0 and N-1
indices = numpy.random.randint(0, N - 1, N)
# For i from the set 0...N-1 (that's what the range() command gives us),
# our result for that i is given by the index we randomly generated above
for i in range(N):
result[i] = set[indices[i]]
return result
# calc_new_data:
# Given a set of resampled residuals, use the model parameters to derive
# new data. This is used for bootstrapping the residuals.
# true_data is a numpy array of rows of ti, yi. We only need the ti column though.
# model is an array of three parameters, corresponding to m1, m2, m3.
# residuals are an array of our resudials
def calc_new_data(true_data, model, residuals):
# Extract the time information from the new data array
ti = true_data[:,0]
# Calculate new data using array maths
# This goes through and does the sums etc for each element of the array
# Nice and compact way to represent it.
y_new = residuals + model[0] + (model[1] * ti) - (0.5 * model[2] * ti**2)
# Our result needs to be an array of ti, y_new, so we need to combine them using
# the numpy.column_stack routine
result = numpy.column_stack((ti, y_new))
# Return this combined array
return result
# print_progress:
# Just a quick thing that returns true if we want to print for this index
# and false otherwise
def print_progress(index, total):
index = float(index)
total = float(total)
result = False
# Floating point maths is irritating
# We want to print at the start, every 10%, and at the end.
# This works up to index = 100,000
# Would also be lovely if Python had a switch statement
if (((index / total) * 100) <= 0.00001):
result = True
elif (((index / total) * 100) >= 9.99999) and (((index / total) * 100) <= 10.00001):
result = True
elif (((index / total) * 100) >= 19.99999) and (((index / total) * 100) <= 20.00001):
result = True
elif (((index / total) * 100) >= 29.99999) and (((index / total) * 100) <= 30.00001):
result = True
elif (((index / total) * 100) >= 39.99999) and (((index / total) * 100) <= 40.00001):
result = True
elif (((index / total) * 100) >= 49.99999) and (((index / total) * 100) <= 50.00001):
result = True
elif (((index / total) * 100) >= 59.99999) and (((index / total) * 100) <= 60.00001):
result = True
elif (((index / total) * 100) >= 69.99999) and (((index / total) * 100) <= 70.00001):
result = True
elif (((index / total) * 100) >= 79.99999) and (((index / total) * 100) <= 80.00001):
result = True
elif (((index / total) * 100) >= 89.99999) and (((index / total) * 100) <= 90.00001):
result = True
elif ((((index+1) / total) * 100) > 99.99999):
result = True
else:
result = False
return result
#
#
# End of helper functions
#
#
# So we can easily execute our script
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
I guess you can take a look, here is link to complete information
